Overrated and Underrated Draft Prospects
Every year, players tend to receive a great deal of hype or lose a great deal of hype from the late draft process. Some of this is because analysts having nothing else to talk about and blow things out of proportion or the Hype may be real.
This can lead to players being overrated and underrated. Less than a month away from the 2016 NFL Draft, who are the most overrated players in this draft and who are the players that could defy expectations and do great things for your team?
- Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
A look at Corey Coleman’s stats will have you dumbfounded and probably confused as to why he is on this side of the overrated/underrated scale. Corey Coleman’s speed is excellent, but a deeper look into him will show you that he may never fill the stat sheet in the NFL like he did in college.
The first red flag is one that all offensive players from Baylor seem to have. It is the fact that the Baylor offense is about the furthest thing from what you will see in the NFL. Plays were designed just for Coleman, and he went deep on pretty much every play. Going into the NFL, Coleman won’t have this type of attention toward him and will have to run a plethora of routes other than the 9-route (Fly Route).
While Coleman was an absolute monster in weeks 1-8, which saw him reach the end zone a ridiculous twenty times, Weeks 9-12 saw him catch 0 touchdown passes. The red flag here is that Week 8 was exactly the time when starter Seth Russell went down with an injury that would put him out for the rest of the season. Coleman couldn’t get anything done with backup Jarrett Stidham taking charge. Coleman wasn’t the threat that he used to be after he didn’t have his star quarterback throwing to him.
The last red flag from Coleman is his measurables. He checked in at 5’11” at the NFL Combine and weighing 194 lbs. Before the Combine, many thought that he was at least 6’0” and upwards of 6’2”, but his poor weigh-in at the Combine served as another red flag for the Baylor wide receiver.
- Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
Braxton Miller is an interesting story. He started his Ohio State career as the team’s starting quarterback and one of the best players in the country. He finished 5th in Heisman voting in 2012 and 9th in 2013. In 2014, big things were expected from him, but a shoulder injury cost him the season, so he took a medical redshirt that year. In 2015, Miller made the switch to a WR/RB hybrid position in the OSU offense.
Braxton Miller certainly is a popular name around college football and the NFL Draft, but due to name recognition, it seems that fans and analysts have him rated a bit too high.
Don’t get me wrong, I am a fan of Braxton’s game and I think that he has a chance at being a good contributor someday, but a lot of the drafts that I have read have him going in the first round.
Braxton isn’t a bad player, but I don’t see a guy who has played the wide receiver position for one year and putting up limited production going in the first round. He has the athleticism to be a good receiver someday or a valuable weapon on offense, but there are other prospects who are just as athletic as him and have more experience at receiver. I could see him being drafted in the late second round by a team like the Patriots. Every coach, Bill Belichick especially, could have a lot of fun finding creative ways to use him, but he isn’t worth a first round selection.
- Deion Jones, LB, LSU
Deion Jones is the former captain of the LSU defense. It’s unbelievable that he isn’t getting more attention in the draft community. He posted 88 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 5 Sacks, and 2 INT’s last season for the Tiger’s defense. Those are impressive numbers for any linebacker.
What concerns people about Jones is his lack of size. At only 6’1” and 227 pounds, he is undersized for the position and looks more like a safety. This lack of size, while detrimental, allows Jones to fly around the field. He was one of the top performers at the Combine, running a 4.59 forty, which was fifth highest for all linebackers in this draft.
Looking at his measurables, he reminds me a lot of another LSU linebacker, Kwon Alexander. If you look at Kwon Alexander’s measurables coming out of college compared to Jones’, they are almost identical. Alexander’s strengths are very similar to Jones’ as well.
Kwon Alexander had a great season for the Buccaneers last year until it was cut short, and I think that Jones can be that same type of player for any team that drafts him.
- Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
Kevin Dodd is an intriguing prospect. Many consider him to be overrated, as he just started to gain hype during the College Football Playoffs with a couple of great performances. While he isn’t as talented as the man across from him, Shaq Lawson, he isn’t too far behind.
Dodd registered 12.5 sacks and 24 TFL last season, which was his first as a starter. Most people seem to think that he only started getting good around January when Clemson made it to the Championship Game. I used to think of him that way until I went into his stats on a game-by-game level. Dodd registered 1.5 sacks against a decent Louisville offensive line, and then against Notre Dame, who had one of the best O-lines in the country, he added 2 sacks and 3.5 TFL to his stat sheet. Other great performances by him came against UNC, Oklahoma, and of course, Alabama. Alabama is known for consistently having great offensive lines, and Dodd tore them apart to the tune of 3 sacks and 5 TFL.
Opposite Shaq Lawson, Dodd may have not seen a whole lot of double-teams coming his way, but the stats that he put up against top competition show that he isn’t just the Lawson’s sidekick.
- Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
A senior safety for West Virginia, Joseph came into the 2015 season as one of the best run-support safeties in the country. Fans only got to see Joseph play four games though, as he tore his ACL in Week 5 and was out for the rest of the season.
Before the tear though, Joseph had already snagged a whopping five interceptions in only four games. That’s outstanding for any safety, especially one that is known for his ability in run-support. This shows that Joseph isn’t just a one trick pony when it comes to playing the safety position, as he can do far more than just deliver big hits.
That injury is what sent him falling down draft boards, because few teams want to draft a player highly who is coming off of a knee injury, save Myles Jack.
Joseph should be healthy before training camp starts, so his knee shouldn’t an issue in draft rooms. Except it still is.
The position of safety is starting to morph into more of a linebacker with coverage ability, so picking up Joseph could be that team jumping on the new trend set by Kam Chancellor, Deone Bucannon, Jaquiski Tartt, and Mark Barron.